By Ken Alltucker and Cindi Andrews
Enquirer staff writers

It's a No. 1 ranking Cincinnati doesn't want.

U.S. census figures released today show that the city last year suffered the fastest population decline among the nation's 245 cities with at least 100,000 people. Cincinnati's July 2003 population of 317,361 represented a drop of 1.5 percent, or about 4,800 people, from 2002.

Since April 2000, Cincinnati's population has fallen 4.2 percent, or about 14,000.

If that rate continues through this decade, the city's population loss would surpass the 9 percent drop of the 1990s.

Among shrinking cities, only St. Louis shed people at a faster rate over a three-year, three-month period since the Census Bureau conducted its once-a-decade head count.

Today's Census report, which includes estimates for all cities, townships and villages, reveals that the declining-population trend extends beyond Cincinnati. Populations dropped in all but a handful of Hamilton County municipalities, including the wealthier cities of Blue Ash, Evendale and Indian Hill.

"People are voting with their feet," said George Vredeveld, a University of Cincinnati economics professor and director of the Economics Center for Education and Research.

The Census Bureau reported earlier this year that Hamilton County's population had dropped 2.6 percent from April 2000 to July 2003, while the 15-county Greater Cincinnati metropolitan area grew by almost 2 percent to 2,047,333.

Many former Hamilton County residents apparently followed the well-worn path to suburbs in Northern Kentucky, and Butler, Warren and Clermont counties in Southwest Ohio. Hamilton Township and Mason in Warren County and Cold Spring, Ky., are among the fastest-growing communities in the Tristate.

Growth analysts say the pattern could strain older suburbs that face large bills for essential police and fire service as taxpayers leave for newly developing areas. And even as fast-growing communities welcome newcomers, leaders face the cost of new roads and schools to accommodate their swelling ranks.

Escaping Hamilton County's taxes and congestion appeals to 48-year-old Fred Davidson, who has lived in Madeira since his first day at kindergarten. Now that Davidson's son has graduated high school, he said, he plans to move to a new home and more land in Clermont County or Brown County.

"I'm not going to pay these stadium taxes and high property taxes," Davidson said. "Within the year, I'll be out of here."

The Census reported that Madeira's population has dropped 3.5 percent since 2000, one of more than three dozen Hamilton County towns, cities or villages that have lost population since 2000.

A handful of Hamilton County communities bucked the trend. Miami, Green, Delhi, Harrison and Symmes townships experienced growth.

Haynes Goddard, a University of Cincinnati professor of economics, sees three major drivers for the region's booming suburbs:

• General population growth.

• High-wage earners seeking bigger houses on large lots.

• Ease of commuting as transportation planners plow more money into highway construction.

Others cited shrinking family sizes and the pursuit of better schools as reasons for the decline of Cincinnati and its inner-ring suburbs.

Bill Frey, a demographer with Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institution, said Cincinnati shares many of the same challenges as other aging Midwest cities. Cleveland, Detroit, Flint, Mich., and Evansville, Ind., rank among the top 10 declining cities nationally.

"They will never recoup their population," Frey said.

Cincinnati was among the 10 largest U.S. cities in the late 1800s. The city's population has declined more than 35 percent, from 504,000, since the 1950 Census.

Frey said some older cities have found success in replenishing population through immigration or downtown revitalization.

While Cincinnati has attracted few immigrants, the city and the county are aggressively seeking a renewed downtown to retain office jobs and attract residents.

"I don't think any city has done more to try to reverse these trends than Cincinnati," Mayor Charlie Luken said. "It will take ... years to reverse."

Hamilton County, too, is seeking answers. A team of economic-development experts hired by Hamilton County commissioners urged them Wednesday to take control of the area's economic future by uniting and improving upon several public-private efforts.

"I'm not sure this region has an economic strategy," said Adam Wasserman, economic development director for Arlington, Va.

He and four others with the International Economic Development Council delivered their preliminary recommendations on how to fix Hamilton County's economy after a two-day marathon of tours and meetings.

The group suggests:

• Appointing a small group of business and government leaders to make a business development plan.

• Strengthening the authority and powers of the county's chief economic-development groups - the Hamilton County Development Co., which administers tax-break programs to attract and keep businesses, and the Port of Greater Cincinnati Development Authority, which controls development of the riverfront and abandoned industrial sites.

The county should consider giving the port authority wider authority to seize private land for redevelopment, the team said.

• Partner with Cincinnati to make Over-the-Rhine a popular destination that appeals to artists and young professionals.

• Develop the Banks as a tourist draw and link it to Fountain Square.

• Join other efforts under way to create a regional identity.

"New York is the Big Apple," said Dick Story, CEO of the Howard County (Md.) Economic Development Authority. "Cincinnati is the - you fill in the blank."

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E-mail kalltucker@enquirer.com or candrews@enquirer.com