By Maggie Downs
Enquirer staff writer

Cincinnati Public School officials are still wrestling with enrollment projections - numbers that could have a profound impact on the district's $1 billion plan for new schools.

The board is expected to vote Monday on the first phase of the construction plan.

Meanwhile, district administrators told school board members Wednesday that the construction and rebuilding of new schools, community outreach and aggressive marketing should lure back families who are now sending their children to private schools or have moved to the suburbs.

But DeJong Inc., a firm hired by the state to make enrollment projections, said in May the district will drop to 33,113 in 10 years, a loss of almost 6,000 from today's enrollment of 38,800.

All this comes at the same time a census report reveals that Cincinnati has lost more population since 2000 than any other large city in the nation except St. Louis.

The original facilities plan, developed in May 2002, called for building and renovating schools to accommodate 42,165 students. That plan was scaled back because of declines in enrollment, almost 13 percent since 1999.

At a Wednesday committee-of-the-whole meeting, board members discussed a revised proposal that would accommodate 38,900 students by the project's end in 2012. That means the district would build fewer schools or reduce the enrollment capacity for some of the 66 planned new and renovated schools.

The big problem is that the state, which contributes about 20 percent of the project, won't allow districts to build more than they need. That's why a master plan will be developed for as few as 34,115 students.

Still, many in the school district are continuing to push for an enrollment plan of 38,900.

One board member called that wishful thinking.

"To say we're going to turn things around while we're in a downward spiral, I don't believe it," said Sally Warner, who chairs the facilities committee.

The proposed plan could likely change again before Monday's board meeting.

"The goal is that we don't waste taxpayers' money and have buildings that are empty," said Christine Wolff, assistant communications manager for Cincinnati Public Schools. "On the flip side, we don't want schools that are crowded."

On Wednesday, the board also discussed resolutions detailing new goals for greater inclusion of minority and small businesses in district construction projects. No date has been set for a vote on those resolutions.

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E-mail mdowns@enquirer.com