Hamilton County's lagging sales tax revenues threaten to throw the stadiums' $647 million debt payment plan into fiscal crisis. Deficits are expected to worsen as early as 2006.

This is no time to adopt a "wait and see" posture or count on long-shot rescues such as from lawsuits against the football stadium architects or against the Bengals and National Football League. County leaders need to take decisive corrective action now.

The county's borrowing plan was based on expected revenue from game-day parking and a voted half-cent stadium sales tax. The financial planners assumed an average 3 percent a year growth in sales tax revenues over 30 years. That seemed a conservative assumption in the 1990s. But sales taxes the last four years went flat or fell well short of 3 percent growth. If revenue growth manages to average even 2 percent from here on, deficits in present-day dollars would total $191 million. Sales tax revenue growth needs to average at least 4 percent to catch up. Some question if a county with declining population and booming adjacent counties can do it.

Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich calls it a "fiscal time bomb." He wants to beef up the county's "rainy day" reserves by millions. Outside auditor A.T. Hudson & Co. of New Jersey claims county departments could save as much as $20 million a year by centralized purchasing and other reforms, and could save a like amount if independent elected offices did similar economizing. Elected department heads so far haven't volunteered for the audits.

Republican Heimlich and Democratic County Commissioner Todd Portune also have called for a strategic development summit of countywide business leaders, as recommended by a visiting panel of experts. The International Economic Development Council group said Hamilton County needed to be the driver to turn its losses around. "We need the best and brightest," Heimlich said. "We need the townships, we need a countywide effort, and Cincinnati as part of the county should also be at the table."

Past task forces here such as the Schaefer-Lemmie economic development group focused chiefly on the city or downtown. Hamilton County's assistant administrator Eric Stuckey agrees a countywide summit could help officials think more strategically. The sales tax is the county's primary revenue source, yet neither the state nor businesses offer specifics on retail trends and performance. When county officials are trying to plan how to pay off stadiums or other debt over 30 years, it would help to know what investments the county should make to help sales tax revenue grow.

Stuckey hopes the county can buy some time for sales tax revenues to recover by 2008-2010, but he admits if the mismatch between debt and revenue is too great, more drastic action will be needed. Hamilton County shouldn't make Ohio's mistake and let deficits balloon. Leaders must act now to make sure the county can keep its promises in paying off stadium debt.