By Jane Prendergast
Enquirer staff writer

Cincinnati is on pace to surpass last year's 26-year high in homicides.

Heading into the second half of the year, 41 people have been killed in the city. That's two more slayings than at the same time in 2003 - a year when 75 people were killed, the most since 1977.

Although city officials say the number of killings remains lower than historically more dangerous cities, the city's rate of homicide per 100,000 residents is higher than seven other regional cities, including Cleveland, Louisville and Pittsburgh.While many of this year's killings have happened between people who police say knew each other and appear to be tied to the illegal-drug trade, experts say the perception that a city is unsafe can undermine its economic health and overall viability.

Chief Tom Streicher defends his department's work to combat violence, but maintains that homicide is the most difficult crime for police to stop.

"Until I can open up somebody's ear, climb into his head and figure out who he's going to kill, when he's going to kill them and where he's going to kill that person, it's very difficult to prevent these," he said.

Streicher bristles when questioned about the city's steady increase in deadly violence. Last year marked the fifth consecutive year that the city saw an increase in killings.

Privately, some council members express frustration with what they say is a lack of leadership from police administration on this issue.

Councilman David Pepper, chairman of council's Law & Public Safety committee, said officials and residents need to take ownership of escalating violence.

"City Hall and the police department and everyone else needs to feel accountable for that number. Other cities have learned that lesson."

Streicher dismisses the criticism, saying what police really need are witnesses and residents who are willing to cooperate with police, who often struggle to solve the killings. He said his officers are doing all they can to bring down the number.

He points to societal ills as the menace behind the city's homicide rate: "There's so many things outside our control. People have to be willing to bring forward information. No one single organization can fix this."

Tired of going to funerals

Police are not the only ones monitoring the trend. City officials, business leaders and criminologists are watching, too.

Des Bracey, manager of a redevelopment project in Washington Park in Over-the-Rhine - where a third of this year's killings have occurred - said safety is critical to the success of such projects.

"The issue of safety is noticed by anyone who lives in Over-the-Rhine, anyone who works in Over-the-Rhine, anyone who drives through Over-the-Rhine," he said. "There are so many issues. Some people say we need more cops, and other people say that's not the answer."

A study last month by criminologists Alfred Blumstein at Carnegie-Mellon University and Richard Rosenfeld of the University of Missouri-St. Louis concluded that it wasn't fair to calculate cities' homicide rates without factoring in the societal woes.

Once those were included in that study, Cincinnati's homicide rate dropped from ninth of 67 large cities studied to 33rd. Rosenfeld said that indicates that Cincinnati suffers significant social issues that could benefit from experts other than police.

Last year, Dr. Jay Johanigman, University Hospital's top trauma surgeon, and black activist the Rev. Damon Lynch III talked about trying a program that would place a police officer in the hospital emergency room. There, they hoped, victims might talk more freely about who shot them, giving police a jump-start on their investigation.

But without financial backing, the idea stalled.

On Father's Day last month, Vice Mayor Alicia Reece's called for one day of peace. Police were critical of that effort, though, saying it was akin to negotiating with drug dealers and killers.

Reece said she was trying to be responsive to an escalating problem that's disproportionately affecting the black community. Eighty percent of this year's 41 victims are black.

"We're sick and tired of going to funerals," she said. "Something has to be done."

Success elsewhere

For decades, police leaders subscribed to Streicher's theory that cops can't prevent killings. But now, many cities with rising crime rates have curbed gang violence, drug dealing and homicides.

In Rochester, N.Y., three years ago, Chief Robert Duffyanalyzed his city's 60homicides and found most were tied to drugs. So he called in experts and asked what the department might do.

Out of those discussions came a shift in police thinking. Rather than wait for drug dealing to escalate into violence, usually at the hands of gang members, the department teamed up with probation and parole officers to set up a program requiring convicts to visit police.

At those meetings, police officers make Power Point presentations that flash the pictures of convicted gang members and drug dealers on the wall. That makes the point that, unbeknownst to the parolees, police officers are still watching them on the streets, Rochester Sgt. Carlos Garcia said.

It appears to be working: Currently, the number of homicides in Rochester stands at 15 - half what it was at this time last year.

"If you would've told me it's as simple as this, I probably would've laughed," Garcia said. "But I firmly believe that where there's a will, there's a way."

Working together

Mayor Charlie Luken said the police are doing what needs to be done to curb crime, citing:

OTHER ANTI-CRIME TACTICS

Cities across the country have tried different approaches to combat escalating violence: • Baltimore is testing the "cop on every corner" idea. Recruits stand on street corners in the city's highest-crime neighborhoods. The recruits, still in the police academy, can't make arrests, but the chief says their presence increases the perception of safety. • In Louisville, police commanders frustrated by a spike in killings deployed a Violent Crimes Task Force on the streets this month. Officers will focus on making arrests for such crimes as drug dealing, shootings and violent assaults. They also will work to identify and monitor gang members. That city saw 33 homicides as of July 4 - an increase of six over the same time last year. • Rochester, N.Y., continues its anti-violence plan this summer with Operation Impact. Sheriff's deputies and state troopers work with Rochester's police officers. The state kicked in $500,000 for overtime. • In Richmond, Va., police are going low-tech: They're using Skunk Shot, a stinky gel, to smell up vacant buildings in an attempt to keep drug dealers and prostitutes out.

• Monthly Community Response Team (CRT) efforts. Those bring together as many as 100 officers from across the department to work two 12-hour days that focus on neighborhood complaints, usually about drugs. The most recent, June 24 and 25, netted 225 arrests from 24 neighborhoods. Police also confiscated marijuana, cocaine, heroin, pills and two guns.

• Curfew sweeps. The most recent, on the West Side July 2, ended with 100 arrests. District 3 Commander Capt. Drew Raabe thinks that the sweeps help curb street robberies and improve the community's perception of safety.

"This is our strategy - to focus on the hot spots with CRTs, curfew violations and all sorts of the disorder that leads to bigger crimes,'' Luken said. "I think our efforts are paying off and will hold big dividends if we stay focused."

Streicher also highlighted the joint city and federal gang investigation of the Tot Lot Posse,whose members dealt drugs and doled out violence, as something he wants to repeat. To date, four members of the West End street gang have pleaded guilty and are awaiting sentencing in federal court on federal drug conspiracy charges. A fifth was arrested Saturday when he returned to Cincinnati for a family gathering.

Bracey, of Cincinnati Center City Development Corp., said that private development group - more commonly known as 3CDC - plans to get involved in combating crime by convening residents, business owners and others around the Washington Park area to talk about safety. They pledge to work with officers. The neighborhood can't expect to have outsiders combat the problem alone, he said.

The human toll

As Cincinnati's numbers continue to rise, victims' relatives such as Marcia Vandiverwait for justice. Her son, George Vance,was shot to death in May on Over-the-Rhine's Race Street in an afternoon killing police say was about drugs and robbery. Before he was killed, the 27-year-old Covington father drove a forklift, loved fishing and was a whiz at doing body work on cars.

Vance's accused killer is a 14-year-old boy who police say robbed and shot Vance and another man.

"God has given me peace," Vandiver said. "If I would've hated that boy, I don't think I could've lived with myself."

Juveniles are accused in five of this year's killings. An analysis of homicides in the last seven years shows that 26 percent of killings have been committed by people under 18, Streicher said.

"Families have to play their roles," the chief said. "You can't have children running around committing crime and exposed to crime and not expect that you're raising a criminal."

Police officials said they hope the current slowdown in homicide holds. There hasn't been a homicide in the city since July 6.

Capt. Vince Demasi, supervisor of investigations, said the recent dip can be attributed, at least in part, to the department's increasing attention and arrests for drug-related crimes. Those arrests are up almost 6 percent when compared with this time last year.

"We think it's at least abating a little bit," Demasi said. "But I don't want to be over-optimistic."

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E-mail jprendergast@enquirer.com