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Friday, July 30, 2004

Pollster finds Kerry a hit with 'swings'



By Gregory Korte
Enquirer staff writer

2004 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION
convention
America can do better, Kerry says
Text of John Kerry's acceptance speech
Pollster finds Kerry a hit with 'swings'
Delegates promise immediate Ohio blitz
Crew tells the nation about 'Nam exploits
Notes from Boston
Multimedia: Democratic convention
Gannett News Service convention coverage
Enquirer's election section

Democrat John F. Kerry swung at least some Cincinnati swing voters with an acceptance speech that promised, "America can do better."

Fourteen of 20 Cincinnati-area swing voters brought together for a focus group rated the speech positively - including four Bush voters in 2000 who now say they plan to vote for Kerry.

Pollster Frank I. Luntz, who assembled the focus group for the cable channel MSNBC, said there would be a "bounce" - an increase in poll ratings. "Not as much as Gore got in 2000, though," he predicted.

Kerry's performance was an important step in winning over moderate-to-conservative Ohioans who say President Bush has betrayed them. Before tonight, many of them weren't sure Kerry was an acceptable alternative.

"It sounds like a cliche, but he looked presidential - more than he's ever looked," said Robert L. Hazzard, 44, an airline pilot from Union Township in Clermont County.

Hazzard is a Republican - but also a union man - who's been turned off by Bush's economy but is scared of Kerry's liberal social values.

But Jerry K. Rippey, a 63-year-old textile importer from Sycamore Township, saw the opposite. He had hoped to see some leadership qualities in Kerry, but called his performance "lackluster." Asked about Kerry's line that America should "only go to war because we have to," he rolled his eyes. "Too vague," he said.

And to still others, Kerry's plans to spend more on medical research and health care seemed like classic liberalism.

"It panders to people who think they're going to get something for nothing. The line was, 'Help is on the way,'" said Alan Kinstler, 56, a real estate agent from Mason.

Luntz gave the panelists hand-held dials to rate the speech as Kerry delivered it.

The resulting line graphs showed Kerry hit a few home runs.

The line, "I want an America that relies on its ingenuity and innovation, not the Saudi royal family," spiked the meters across the spectrum, as did his promise to make sure American families got the same health care benefits as Congress.

Sean Kramer, a 35-year-old radio engineer from Norwood, explained the appeal of that idea to Republicans: "Don't give us what they've got. Give Congress what we got."

It wasn't lost on this group of swing voters that Kerry's speech contained two overt references to Ohio - one to the plight of a steelworker from Canton, and the other to the ingenuity of Dayton's Wright brothers. That showed he was paying attention to middle America, some said. Others felt pandered to.

Luntz, a focus group guru whose work is usually for Republican candidates, said these suburban, Republican-leaning voters are up for grabs. They could swing Ohio and, thus, the election.

"These are people who are center-to-right, who are disappointed with the record of the incumbent, but they're wary of the challenger," Luntz said.

But if Republicans are worried about losing these swing voters, they're not letting on.

"I wouldn't put a lot of stock in one focus group of 20 voters in the middle of the Democratic convention, when the presidential candidate is speaking," said Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Westwood.

"I would encourage voters - Republicans and swing voters - to watch the Democratic campaigns and the issues they're espousing and do the same thing at the Republican convention a month from now. I think it's healthy," he said.

The chief strategist for the Bush-Cheney campaign, Matthew Dowd, told Ohio reporters Thursday that the campaign knew it would be close in Ohio from the beginning.

"People forget that in July 2000 the president was only up over Gore by 1 point - and we obviously ended up winning the state by a little less than 4 points," he said. "It's not unusual for it to be close at this point. It was in 2000."

E-mail gkorte@enquirer.com




2004 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION
America can do better, Kerry says
Text of John Kerry's acceptance speech
Pollster finds Kerry a hit with 'swings'
Delegates promise immediate Ohio blitz
Crew tells the nation about 'Nam exploits
Notes from Boston
Multimedia: Democratic convention
Gannett News Service convention coverage
Enquirer's election section

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