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Saturday, July 31, 2004

Swing voters speak up


Cincinnati panel offers barometer for election

By Gregory Korte
Enquirer staff writer

They're worried about outsourcing and terrified of terrorism. They're disappointed in President Bush but they're not sure yet about his opponent, Democrat John Kerry. Pollster Frank Luntz called them "perhaps the 20 most important people in America right now."

Who are they? They're Cincinnati-area swing voters.

And they're precisely the kind of voter that Bush and Kerry will be wooing this weekend as both campaigns crisscross Ohio with competing bus tours.

Bush will be in Canton and Cambridge today; Kerry arrives in Zanesville tonight before moving on to Springfield and Bowling Green Sunday.

The opinions of Ohio's swing voters are in such high demand in Washington these days that ABC News' Web-based political report The Note said Friday it was "channeling" an undecided Ohio voter in some kind of mock ESP-aided poll.

Luntz, an MSNBC pollster with Republican leanings, was somewhat more scientific.

He invited 20 Cincinnati-area swing voters to a downtown hotel and gave them hand-held dials to measure their reactions to the candidates' speeches.

The 13 men and seven women ranged in age from 19 to 63.

Their homes stretch from Harrison to Bethel. It's a conservative part of the state, and the panel's center of gravity was slightly right of center.

Still, while 14 voted for Bush in 2000, only eight are solidly in his camp this year. They have concerns about Bush's handling of the war and the economy. But many don't know whether Kerry is an acceptable alternative.

While focus groups aren't polls - and therefore can't measure swings in public opinion - they can give a better perspective on why those polls are moving in any particular direction. So if Kerry gets the expected post-convention "bounce" in the polls, here's why:

• The character issue. The biggest question mark for many of these swing voters was whether Kerry had the fortitude to fight terrorists.

After his speech Thursday, most decided he did. While a few still disparaged his war record, almost all of these Republican-leaning voters said it's fair to consider Kerry a "war hero."

"I think everybody realizes that talk is cheap. Actions speak louder than words. And there can be no question in anybody's mind, whether you like Kerry or whether you don't like Kerry, that he has walked the walk," said Robert L. Hazzard, 44, an airline pilot from Union Township in Clermont County.

• Outsourcing - the loss of American jobs to overseas contractors - is hitting Ohio hard.

Just the use of the word "outsourcing" sent the dials spinning.

There were no Cleveland steelworkers or Akron rubber workers in this group, and yet all said they could feel the negative effects of globalization. Kerry's accusation that American companies were getting tax breaks to move jobs offshore hit an emotional vein.

"I'm already seeing it with contractors. What's next? They don't even have call centers in the United States," said Sean Kramer, a 35-year-old radio technician from Norwood. "The guy in India isn't buying anything in America."

Kerry and his running mate, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, did turn off these swing voters at times. Here's how:

• Working people need better health care and more-secure jobs, but not social programs reminiscent of the Great Society, they said.

"He was all over the map. He's going to cure AIDS. He's going to cure Parkinson's. Who's going to fund it, and where's the research coming from?" said Doug Campbell, a 43-year-old computer network designer from Sycamore Township.

"In a hypothetical world, I thought he had some great concepts - improving health care by lowering costs. But in the real world, how do we accomplish that without doing something drastic with the tax system?" said Patricia Kraps, a 44-year-old human resources supervisor from Anderson Township.

• The war on terror is an important and complicated issue, the voters said. Yes, mistakes were made. But Monday-morning quarterbacking isn't going to help. Both campaigns now need to focus on how they'll make America safe.

"What's our exit plan going to look like? Bush hasn't been clear on that, and so far I don't think Kerry has either," said David Harmon, a 39-year-old engineer from Symmes Township. "To look back and point fingers, any reasonable person would have done what Bush did."

Indeed, nothing turns these voters off like trying to score political points on terrorism. When Edwards talked Wednesday about the "profound sadness" that united the country after Sept. 11, his approval ratings soared.

But then he turned critical of the Bush Administration. "We are approaching the third anniversary of Sept. 11th, and one thing I can tell you: When we're in office, it won't take three years to get the reforms in our intelligence that are necessary to keep the American people safe."

His approval plummeted. These swing voters said it was a "cheap shot," "Pollyanna-ish," and "a vast oversimplification of what obviously is a very complicated problem."

Said Lance Olberding, a 33-year-old former Bengal lineman and mortgage broker from Mason: "He didn't say whether he's going to make us any safer, because he can't say that. No one can."

These Ohio voters know they're important. But they said they don't have to hear about Ohio in every speech.

"I don't want to be pandered to. They have a whole country to run," said Kramer.

E-mail gkorte@enquirer.com




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