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Tuesday, August 3, 2004

Oil market stays steady despite terrorism alert


Russia's Yukos looks less likely to shut down

By Madlen Read
The Associated Press

NEW YORK - Oil prices were little changed Monday despite continued fears of a disruption to Russian supplies and fresh warnings of possible terrorist attacks in the United States.

Light crude for September delivery closed up 2 cents at $43.82 a barrel - the highest level since trading began in New York 21 years ago - on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices rose as high as $43.94 early in the day.

Brent crude for September delivery closed down 6 cents at $39.97 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange.

Analysts attributed the early rally to fears of a terrorist strike. U.S. authorities Sunday warned that al-Qaida was planning attacks on five key financial institutions in New York, New Jersey and Washington.

Although oil prices neared the $44 mark in early trading, taking into account inflation, oil prices would have to climb to about $57 a barrel to exceed the value of oil leading up to the Persian Gulf War. Oct. 11, 1990, oil was priced at $40.42 a barrel, which in today's dollars would be equivalent to $57.

In afternoon trading, investors pulled back.

"The market took pause," said Ed Silliere, vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York. "Traders took pause, took a step back to absorb all the news, specifically all the terrorist threat news."

Where oil prices move next will largely depend on how long the U.S. government continues the terrorist alert.

"If (the terror level) drops back to yellow ... speculators would drive right back in the market," Silliere said. "God forbid we actually see an attack, we'd see oil prices plunge."

Some traders said the day's early terror fear was overplayed.

Analyst Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago said the weekend warnings might actually have helped reassure some market participants by showing that U.S. authorities are getting better intelligence to counter threats.

Analysts also said reports that Russian oil giant Yukos might get more time to pay a tax bill and simple profit-taking were behind falls in London and New York trading.

Crude prices were sent to record highs last week on news that bailiffs' orders against Yukos, Russia's biggest oil producer, could force the company to shut down production within a few days.

The standoff between Yukos, which produces 2 percent of the world's oil, and Russian authorities that threaten to shut down production remains a concern.

The struggling oil company has now been given a full month to pay off its crippling $3.4 billion back-tax bill for 2000 but was hit with a fresh blow Monday as tax authorities said they would begin a probe of its 2002 activities.




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