By Mike Boyer
Enquirer staff writer

The U.S. government's monthly update on energy prices contains little good news for consumers, with gasoline and natural gas prices expected to continue to rise.

The August update of the Department of Energy's short-term outlook Tuesday foresees natural gas prices averaging $6.21 per thousand cubic feet, down only slightly from July, while regular gasoline prices tick up to $1.92 a gallon from $1.88 a gallon.

A combination of rising crude oil prices and a stronger economy are pushing up energy prices in general, said Neil Gamson, an analyst with the Energy Information Administration, which publishes the quarterly energy outlook and updates it monthly.

"Things have changed a lot over the last month," he said.

The agency said natural-gas production will decline this year as more gas for power plants and heating fuel is pumped than new wells can produce to replace it.

The Energy Department also raised its estimated average price for benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil during the third quarter 11 percent to $40.97 a barrel, up from $37 a barrel forecast last month.

"The rule of thumb is that for every $1-a-barrel increase in the price of crude, heating oil and gasoline rise 2.4 cents a gallon," Gamson said.

"With rising consumption and little global surplus production capacity," the Energy Department report said, "near-term prices remain volatile and sensitive to news relating to possible reduction in oil production."

The agency won't will release its annual winter heating forecast until the first week of October, but indications are that consumers will pay more for all heating fuels this winter.

Natural gas prices declined somewhat in early August as milder weather reduced air-conditioning needs and electric demand from gas-fired power plants, the agency said. Less demand allows more gas to go into storage, pushing prices down.

Natural gas sold at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana is expected to average $6.21 per thousand cubic feet, the report said, down from $6.30 per thousand cubic feet forecast last month.

But the agency said: "Prices are likely to average well above $6 per thousand cubic feet for fall and winter." Last winter, the average price was about $5.50 per thousand cubic feet, Gamson said.

"A lot depends on the weather," Gamson said. "If we have a mild October and November, that relieves some of the pressure on prices. But if we have colder weather, prices will rise."

Email mboyer@enquirer.com