By Tim Bonfield
Enquirer staff writer
By the year 2020, Ohio's older population will grow by 44 percent, placing new strains on medical and social services statewide and perhaps causing planners to rethink issues ranging from transportation to entertainment.
The aging population in some Greater Cincinnati counties - especially suburban counties - will grow even faster, according to a massive report released Tuesday by Miami University's Scripps Gerontology Center.
Ohio already has one of the largest senior populations in the United States. Only California, Florida, New York, Texas and Pennsylvania have larger proportions of seniors.
Statewide, the number of Ohio residents 60 or older will increase from 1.96 million today to 2.82 million in 2020. Seniors will account for about 23.5 percent of the state population, up from 17.3 percent, and more than one third of those people will have at least one physical disability.
The report, available online now and to be mailed this month to numerous state and county policy-makers, urges officials to step up planning to serve the aging population.
"We know that budgeting for the future isn't easy.
"But the state needs to be ready for a substantially larger number of older people who will be coming through the system," said Shahla Mehdizadeh, lead researcher for the study.
Locally, the report projects:
• A 145 percent increase in the 60-plus population for Warren County.
• A 120 percent increase for Clermont County.
• A 74 percent increase for Butler County.
• A 20 percent increase for Hamilton County.
The study, however, goes much deeper than the overall increase in the aging population.
It also projects how many people likely will be disabled, how many will be poor, even how many widows will be living alone.
Trends also are broken down by race and gender.
Many leaders in Ohio's fastest-growing suburban counties aren't focusing on senior needs and interests, the report's author says.
"There is more to growth than just roads and schools. Those counties that are seeing an influx of younger families today will be seeing a lot of retirees in the next 20 years and beyond," Mehdizadeh said.
Of the four Southwest Ohio counties, Warren will see the fastest growth in its senior population. That figure includes a projected 151 percent increase in the number of disabled elderly residents - from 1,573 in 2000 to 3,954 in 2020.
"We have seen some increase in the needs of seniors. But the magnitude of these statistics surprises me. Obviously, these statistics tell us that our work is cut out for us," said Michael Schepers, executive director of the Warren County United Way.
In 2002, voters approved Warren County's first senior services levy after a waiting list for services from Warren County Community Services had grown to more than 400 people. The levy is expected to raise $3.7 million a year for five years.
The waiting list is gone, but the agency already is seeing more demand than it projected before the levy passed, said Larry Sargent, executive director of Warren County Community Services. It remains too early to predict whether the county will need a bigger levy when renewal time comes in 2007, he said.
By contrast, Hamilton County already has a large older population that is projected to grow at rates much slower than state averages. The county also has a more established array of senior services than most suburban counties, including a five-year senior services levy, first approved in 1993 and increased in 2002, that raises about $18 million a year.
Hamilton County's elderly population will grow about 20 percent, to 175,880 by 2020, the report states. But the number of elderly people living with a "severe" disability will grow just 6 percent, to 13,872.
The good news
While population projections indicate that demand for senior services will grow, the report also notes that many elderly people likely will be healthier and more active than seniors of previous generations.
"Not all older people will be a drain on community resources," Mehdizadeh said. "About 70 percent of older people will be relatively healthy and able to take care of themselves. Many of those people will be looking for volunteer opportunities when they retire and can make important contributions to society."
Demand probably will be strongest for services and technologies that can help people live longer in their own homes, rather than building many more nursing homes, she said.
Beyond demands for health and social services, rising numbers of seniors will be important in other ways, ranging from transportation planning to building design to themes in arts and entertainment.
Businesses, nonprofit organizations and governments that take seniors for granted will do so at their peril.
"Many older people have the money and the time to go to museums and shows. So arts organizations need to be mindful of seniors' tastes and interests," Mehdizadeh said.
E-mail tbonfield@enquirer.com
