By Carl Weiser
Enquirer Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - The University of Cincinnati's latest Ohio Poll out Thursday shows Democrat John Kerry and President Bush "neck and neck" - and their supporters chin to chin.

Among 812 likely voters, the Massachusetts senator leads Bush 48 percent to 46 percent. Since the poll's margin of error is 3.4 percentage points, that means the two are statistically tied. The poll's results were similar to a USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll released Wednesday night.

The poll also showed Ohio voters polarized, with only 4 percent of Ohio voters saying their vote is still up for grabs.

Among Democrats, only 14 percent had a favorable opinion of Bush. Among Republicans, only 11 percent had a favorable view of Kerry.

Both groups dislike Ralph Nader, according to the poll. Even independents had a more unfavorable view of him.

"Democrats are very much behind Senator Kerry. Republicans are very much behind the president. There's really very little defection to speak of," said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the Ohio Poll.

Compared to similar polls from 2000, Rademacher said, the Republican antipathy to the Democratic candidate is similar, but the Democrats this year are more hostile to Bush than they were four years ago.

Bush continues to do well in Southwest Ohio, where he leads Kerry by 14 percentage points - his biggest lead in any region of the state. His worst area: the Rust Belt area of Northeast Ohio, where he trails by 13 percentage points.

The Ohio Poll shows Kerry doing far better among blacks and 18- to 29-year olds, and in urban counties.

Bush is winning handily among white men, and in rural areas and suburban counties.

The Ohio Poll for the first time this year released results for "likely voters." Its previous polls have been of "registered voters," so the results aren't directly comparable.

Since the traditional kickoff for presidential campaigns is Labor Day, polls normally at the time show voters more open to both sides, Rademacher said.

But for Ohioans, the campaign has been in an October-like ferocity for months. The amount of truly open "swing voters" is tiny - just 4 percent of all likely voters - but they could still decide who wins Ohio's 20 electoral votes and, possibly, the election.

"A misstep by either side could easily have a major impact on the race," Rademacher said. "Whoever picks up that 4 percent could well win the election."

E-mail cweiser@gannett.com