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Saturday, August 21, 2004

Poll: Differences clear


Ohio voters like Kerry on the economy, Bush on terrorism

By Gregory Korte
Enquirer staff writer

Ohio voters trust Democrat John F. Kerry to do a better job of handling the economy, by a wide margin.

By a slightly smaller but still convincing margin, the same voters trust Republican George W. Bush more when it comes to fighting the war on terrorism.

And voters think those two issues - the economy and foreign policy, in that order - are the most important factors in whom they'll vote for in November.

chart Those findings - the latest poll results released Friday by the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research - help explain why the battle for Ohio, and therefore the nation, is so close 74 days before Election Day.

Even the swing voters - who make up 4 percent of Ohio's population - seem evenly divided on what the most important issue is.

"Among independents there is a real split with the economy and foreign policy as the No. 1 issue, which makes attracting those independents more difficult for either campaign," said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the Ohio Poll.

In results released Thursday, the Ohio Poll reflected a statistical dead heat between Kerry and Bush, with 48 percent of likely voters favoring Kerry and 46 percent supporting Bush. The telephone phone poll of 812 voters, conducted Aug. 11-17, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Given the importance of the economy to the campaign, Friday's release of state unemployment numbers kicked off a new round of spinning from both camps.

The seasonally adjusted statewide rate ticked up in July, from 5.8 percent to 5.9 percent. In Hamilton County, whose economy has historically been stronger, unemployment dropped from 5.7 percent to 5.3 percent.

"Today's Ohio job report was another anemic and disappointing jobs report amidst the most anemic and disappointing job record of any president since the 1930s," said Gene Sperling, director of the National Economic Council during the Clinton administration and an adviser to Kerry.

But U.S. Rep. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, said the report was better than it appears. Ohio did gain jobs in July - including 3,000 manufacturing jobs - but more workers entered the workforce, causing the slight increase in unemployment.

"It tells me that although the economy's improving, not everybody is feeling it yet," said Portman, who blamed himself as a Bush campaign spokesman for not getting a more positive message out. "People are not yet focused on the differences between these two candidates when it comes to economy."

And just as Democrats have tried to boost Kerry's image on foreign policy issues, Republicans acknowledge that Bush needs to do a better job explaining his record on the economy.

"Here in Ohio, I think it's about our economy," said Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder. "I think the president needs to show he has the leadership, as I believe he does, to bring new things to the state."

---

E-mail gkorte@enquirer.com

Enquirer reporters Jim Siegel in Columbus and Carl Weiser in Washington contributed.




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