By John Eckberg
Enquirer staff writer

A Sunday brunch of eggs, bacon, sausage, ham, orange juice, milk and coffee isn't as costly as caviar and char at a Parisian four-star restaurant - it only seems that way.

The Atkins diet's reliance on cheese and overseas consumption of American pork have led to rising prices for buffet brunch fixings.

Sarah Bell, a server at Price Hill Chili, dishes up a plate of eggs, ham and homefries. (Enquirer photo/MEGGAN BOOKER)

Eggs posted the sharpest increase, scrambling the weekend breakfast budgets for most American households.

The retail price of eggs in 2004 will average $1.40 per dozen, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

That is far below the $1.59 peak in the first quarter of 2004, and while even more relief may be in sight, prices are likely to hold steady, says Fawzi Taha, USDA's egg economics expert.

"At the end of the year, it might be in the range of $1.35 to $1.45, but that is pure speculation," Taha said. A price in the mid-$1.40s per dozen would be a record.

Prices will likely be moderate because the number of laying chickens has increased, and feed costs for corn and soybean meal have so far been flat in the third quarter.

"We make our estimates based on the price of feed going down. Feed is about 70 percent of the cost of production," Taha said.

Other brunch staples, mostly dairy products such as milk, cheese and butter, are still at near-market highs, though prices have slipped from April peaks.

Milk prices, for example, are up 13.7 percent this year nationally, according to the USDA. But it's worth noting that retail milk prices locally are down 7 percent - and for the past four months have been the lowest in 31 major markets surveyed by the government.

Market pressures

Experts predict that price erosion will continue for other breakfast food items. But that may be too late for some retailers.

"I know I had to raise the price of my milk," said John Ashton, owner of the Riddle Road Market, a University Heights grocery. "It was the first time in three years. Other places use milk as a loss leader. We don't. We sell convenience and freshness."

Latoisha Alexander, a Price Hill resident and owner of Mom's Homecooking, a Warsaw Avenue diner, is trying to hold the line on prices.

When she bought the restaurant in 2002, a five-pound bag of shredded cheese cost $7 or $8, she said, and milk was $1.99 a gallon. Not anymore.

"Now cheese is $13 to $14," she said. "Milk costs, what, $3 a gallon? I can't raise my prices because a lot of my customers are on fixed income. I'm not making (any profit) right now."

The Atkins factor

Robin Pendery, a registered dietitian with the Nutrition Council, a Greater Cincinnati nonprofit that offers nutrition and fitness education, believes that dairy products cost more because of the popularity of the Atkins diet.

Atkins dieters spurn carbohydrates for high-fat, protein-rich foods.

"My guess is if somebody is following the Atkins, they're eating more cheese and eggs because it fits with the program that calls for higher protein and fat content as well as foods that are very low in carbohydrates," Pendery said.

"It's an educated guess. You'll have to ask the chickens if they're working a little harder these days."

Not all brunch foods will cost more. Orange juice prices should be stable, despite a 10 percent crop loss to Hurricane Charley, predicted Tom Spreen, professor and chairman of the food and resource economics department at the University of Florida in Gainesville.

Because orange juice is high in carbohydrates, Atkins dieters do not drink it. Consumption has declined at a 3 percent annual rate since 2002.

"There's 38 weeks of supply in inventory right now," Spreen said. "It's unlikely that consumers will see much price change."

The other white meat

But pork prices are expected to rise. Retail pork averaged $2.77 a pound in the second quarter, the USDA determined. That is 6 percent more than the same period in 2003.

Blame pork-eaters in Japan, who are worried about food-borne diseases such as mad cow and avian flu. They have turned to pork in greater numbers to avoid possibly contaminated beef or chicken, the USDA says.

Even with rising prices, the Sunday brunch is in no immediate danger of going the way of tea, crumpets and white gloves, says Barbara Haber, author of From Hardtack to Home Fries: An Uncommon History of American Cooks and Meals.

Brunch, despite the price hikes, remains an affordable way to entertain, mostly because guests are not likely to consume expensive libations, filet mignon and other pricey foods and drinks.

"Food is still cheap, and brunch remains a heck of a bargain," Haber said. "You know, you can cook a lot of brunches with a couple dozen eggs."

Surprises for shoppers

The prices of some brunch foods have fluctuated substantially since the start of this year.

Dozen eggs -- down 17.1%

Pound of boneless ham -- down 0.5%

Gallon of milk -- down 7% in Cincinnati (where prices are the lowest of 31 metro areas surveyed) -- but up 13.7 percent nationally *

Pound of coffee -- down 0.5%**

Pound of cheddar cheese -- up 14.6%

Pound of salted butter -- up 41.2%

Pound of sausage -- down 2%

Pound of bacon -- up 7%

Sources:

* U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service

** U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

All other data from USDA Economic Research Service

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E-mail jeckberg@enquirer.com