By Meg Richards
The Associated Press

NEW YORK - If you're a stock investor, lately you might be feeling as if you're swimming against a current. The market's sideways moves since the start of the year have frustrated Wall Street professionals, too, leading some experts to think the current pattern is part of a much larger, bearish trend.

Adherents of this theory believe we're in the midst of a "secular bear market," a long-term downward move that could take years, even decades, to work itself out. The last secular bear market went from 1966 to 1982. It was followed by 18 years of robust gains, which ended with the dramatic bursting of the tech bubble. What we're seeing now, secular bears say, is a natural hangover - a corrective phase.

The best illustration of this is in the dramatic volatility of the Nasdaq composite index. It's currently down only 7 percent from where it began 2004. But earlier this month, the Nasdaq plummeted to its lowest point of the year, which was 18 percent below the high point it reached in January. The index has rebounded almost 6 percent in the last two weeks.

"It's logical. It's playing out exactly as it should," said Gary Kaltbaum, president of Kaltbaum & Associates, a money management firm in Orlando, Fla. "The Nasdaq is faring the worst because that's where the most speculation, risk and overvaluations are. It will take a lot longer for the Nasdaq to correct. But this is all a normal process."

Others see more reason for optimism. Even though energy prices are higher, consumer prices overall aren't accelerating, inventories are just starting to build and corporate spending has only begun to turn around after several austere years. While the economy is growing at a slower pace than in years past, most indicators point up, said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief investment strategist with PNC Advisors in Philadelphia.

"I don't see any of the elements here that would result in even a cyclical bear market, much less a secular one," Kleintop said. "The problem is you don't really know you're in a secular bear market until you look back and say, 'Oh, we didn't go anywhere for 16 years.' "

Kleintop said the market seems to be entering a different phase - one where investors will need to ratchet down their expectations and make the most of buying opportunities. Dividends are going to matter more.