The turmoil in Iraq should come as no surprise to those familiar with the 20th century history of that country. Most would agree that President Bush did a fine job of bringing the country together after 9/11, that Saddam Hussein was an evil man, and that the American military did a brilliant job in bringing down his regime.

It has been the lack of foresight regarding what would occur after the regime was defeated that has been troubling.

After World War I, Iraq was cobbled together by the British from three Ottoman provinces - centered on Mosul (heavily Kurdish), Baghdad (predominately Sunni) and Basra (mostly Shiite). The British acquired a mandate for the country, and planned to run it as a colonial province. But a Shiite revolt in the south cost the British 500 men, and the British modified their plan. The country was given a constitutional monarchy modeled after Britain, and was awarded an Arab from Saudi Arabia as king. But the British retained control from behind the scenes and kept a garrison there until after World War II.

Despite the trappings of democracy, a series of uprisings by Kurds and Shiites was put down by the fledgling Iraqi army, dominated by Sunnis, and the army became the dominant political force in the country. But senior army leaders could not agree, and there were four coups between 1936 and 1963. The Baath Party took control in 1963, and a series of maneuvers by Saddam brought him to power.

Saddam was paranoid. From his distorted viewpoint, his 1980 attack on Iran was "defensive," based on the Ayatollah Khomeini's shrill denunciation of him. He feared a linkage between Iran and the Shiites in the south. His 1990 attack on Kuwait was based in part on Kuwait's refusal to forgive the loans it had made to Iraq during the Iranian war. Both attacks were bad mistakes, but the pattern led some analysts to believe that Saddam would use weapons of mass destruction only if attacked, and that he could have been contained as we contained the Soviet Union.

It was no surprise that the country erupted in Sunni and Shiite insurgencies once the iron fist of Saddam had been removed. We hope that the next administration - whoever leads it - will take more time to study any country we want to intimidate before taking military action.

---

Dr. Irvine "Dusty" Anderson of Pleasant Ridge, a retired American diplomatic historian specializing in the Middle East, served as a naval air intelligence officer during the Korean War.

Want your voice here?

Send your column or proposed topic, 400 words or fewer, along with a photo of yourself, to assistant editorial editor Ray Cooklis at rcooklis@enquirer.com or call (513) 768-8525.

Dr. Irvine "Dusty" Anderson of Pleasant Ridge, a retired American diplomatic historian specializing in the Middle East, served as a naval air intelligence officer during the Korean War.