By James Pilcher
Enquirer staff writer

On Wednesday, Delta Air Lines is expected to unveil the first phase of its restructuring plan. Undoubtedly those associated with the carrier's hub operations at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport will be waiting anxiously to hear it.

But industry watchers say Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky probably has little to worry about, and could see growth from the announcement. Even the local airport director says he is not concerned that Delta might cut back here.

"I haven't heard anything yet, and I take that as a good sign," said airport aviation director Bob Holscher. "So I would think that Cincinnati should be fine."

Mired in red ink for more than three years, Delta has touted the plan as a way to refocus and reshape itself to survive the ups and downs of the airline industry.

Chief executive officer Gerald Grinstein also has warned that the plan will necessitate some job cuts, but the Atlanta-based carrier has not said how many cuts would be needed or how they would be done.

Delta has shed 16,000 positions since the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks. Delta has not said how many were cut locally, but it was not thought to be much.

Delta and its Erlanger-based regional subsidiary, Comair, employ more than 8,000 locally to operate Delta's second-largest hub, making it one of the area's largest corporate employers.

Delta and its affiliates operated 604 departures out of Cincinnati daily in July, the most recent month for which data are available.

"We are committed to Cincinnati and that market," Delta spokeswoman Tanya Wagner said, declining to address other questions about the potential future of the Cincinnati hub.

Experts such as Goldman Sachs airline analyst Glenn Engel say that the airline probably won't shrink, but redeploy assets, because shrinking an airline by cutting routes and parking planes actually can raise costs, at least initially.

"They want to take the battle to fights where they think they can win," Engel said. "So I would think that Cincinnati would be safe."

Delta operates its fourth-largest hub in Dallas.

Engel and others say the hub at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport may come under the knife. Delta operates 255 daily departures both on large and regional jets, and employs 4,000 in the Dallas area.

But it competes directly with hometown carrier American Airlines for business travelers and another well-known hometown carrier that draws from the other end of the spectrum - Southwest.

"It never pays to be the No. 2 carrier in a hub," Engel said. "Delta has tried several different things there from big jets to redeploying with RJs (regional jets) and none of it has worked."

Engel said that Dallas wouldn't help Delta refocus on the Northeast market, where he thinks the airline will try to concentrate.

Holscher agreed, saying he also believes Dallas could see some cuts, or see the hub eliminated entirely. That could mean some jobs being moved here, and more flights out of the local hub.

"We also could see capacity added out of here if the fare initiative takes root," said Holscher, referring to Delta's recent fare restructuring in and out of Cincinnati.

Salt Lake City, Delta's third-largest hub and main West Coast presence, could also see some cuts, Engel said, but that would mean the airline is truly retrenching to the east, which could be a mistake.

"It's not likely to go, but it clearly would be the next to be on the list," Engel said. "They need that to funnel people through to the West Coast."

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E-mail jpilcher@enquirer.com