With recent statewide polling showing George Bush in a double-digit lead over Democrat John Kerry, Kentucky is getting little to no love from the presidential campaigns.

The candidates are not making frequent swings into the state's undecided hot spots, holding hold big rallies, convening quaint town meetings or delivering major policy announcements - all of which they did last week just across the Ohio River in the battleground states of Ohio and West Virginia.

That's quite a contrast to 1996, when Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, their wives or running mates were in Kentucky at least once a week during the final two months of the presidential campaign.

The push was on eight years ago because Kentucky is a bellwether state. Richard Nixon was the last candidate to win Kentucky but lose the presidential race. So candidates have traditionally courted voters here for the historical lift carrying Kentucky can provide.

And because of the state's relatively moderate political leanings - it has only recently, like the rest of the south, turned hard right - Kentucky has often been a tossup. Clinton, for instance, carried Kentucky by just two points in 1996.

So what makes this year different? First, there is Bush's commanding lead. According to the most recent Survey USA poll, the president leads John Kerry here by 17 points.

Bush doesn't need to waste time coming here because he's just about got the state won. Kerry, meanwhile, doesn't want to expend valuable resources on futility.

But there is a also a deeper reason why Kentucky is almost certain to be a red state this year, and it explains why Kerry is going to have a hard time winning.

Parties can't win with near hatred for their opponent but only lukewarm support for their own nominee. Ask the Republicans about 1992 and 1996. The party couldn't stand Clinton, but the GOP faithful roused little passion for his opponents.

The same dynamic is happening this year. Democrats are working hard to defeat Bush on issues such as Iraq, the economy, the deficit and more. Against a stronger opponent I'm convinced Bush would be in serious trouble.

But Kerry does little to raise the juice of most voters. He's there because the Democrats, at least nationally, currently have a very thin bench. He was the best they had, but that's probably not going to be good enough.

Northern Kentucky Democrats are excited about opening Kerry's local campaign headquarters this week. I'm being told that dozens if not hundreds of Kerry supporters plan to attend.

But the candidate won't be there. He probably has a rally to attend in Ohio.

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E-mail pcrowley@enquirer.com. Crowley interviews statehouse candidate Mark Hayden this week on ICN6's "On The Record," which is broadcast daily on Insight Communications Channel 6.