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Saturday, September 25, 2004

Tracking manager success difficult


Savvy investor

By John Waggoner
USA Today

If you've ever tried your hand at picking stocks, you've probably wondered, "Why the heck should I spend all this time and effort? Wouldn't it be easier just to find a smart person and rip off all his ideas?" Of course it would. But it's not as easy as you think.

The stock market was swimming with attractive stocks at reasonable valuations this year, many of which promptly floated to the surface to die.

Nevertheless, a few top mutual funds have scored decent gains this year.

Is there any way you can tell what they're doing? Why, yes. The Securities and Exchange Commission requires investment managers to file Form 13-G when they have purchased 5 percent or more of a company's voting stock. These forms are posted on the SEC's Edgar system, which you can reach at www.sec.gov.

In theory, all you need to do is find a fund with a good manager and search for its 13-Gs. Unfortunately, it's not so easy, says Derek Meisner, counsel for Kirkpatrick & Lockhart, a Boston law firm. That's because:

• Funds have a long time to file 13-Gs - 45 days from the end of the calendar year in which the fund acquires a 5 percent stake.

• Many times, the 13-G is filed on behalf of an entire fund company, rather than an individual fund. Fidelity Investments, for example, has $618 billion in stock-fund assets. Some of their funds are so big that 5 percent of a company's stock would be a minor holding.

• Some funds, such as index funds, may buy stocks because they fill the fund's investment mandate, not because management is turning cartwheels over them. And just because a fund doesn't have the word "index" in its name doesn't mean that it's not mimicking an index. So-called closet index funds track a stock index because they can't beat it.

But you can learn from a few funds, says Pat Dorsey, director of stock analysis at investment tracker Morningstar. In particular, you can learn from funds that look for bargains and trade infrequently. Bargain hunters, called value managers, look for stocks with low prices, relative to earnings. They often buy stocks in industries that are out of favor on Wall Street.

And they often buy early, before a stock starts to move up. The Clipper fund, for example, has added two stocks to its portfolio this year: Johnson & Johnson, the consumer health care company, and Marsh & McLennan, the insurer and parent of the Putnam funds.

Meisner and Dorsey agree on this advice: Do your own research, and don't rely only on what a fund manager is doing. But it's nice to know that a smart fund manager thinks highly of a stock you own.

And in many cases, you can find out why a manager likes a stock by reading the fund's quarterly shareholder letter. In fact, it's a great way to learn how to invest. "You probably can't get face time with Michael Jordan for basketball," says Dorsey. "But anyone can look at portfolios and read shareholder letters."

If you're looking for a really easy way to take advantage of top managers, however, you might do better by investing in their funds.




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Tracking manager success difficult
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