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Saturday, September 25, 2004

Some use oil prices as smokescreen



By Meg Richards
The Associated Press

NEW YORK - With crude prices at record highs and the winter heating season just around the corner, Wall Street is having a hard time dismissing worries about rising energy costs.

A number of companies have cited oil prices as they've issued third-quarter profit warnings and reports, and anxiety about crude, which neared $50 a barrel this week, has weighed heavily on stocks. There's good reason to worry: Energy costs are crimping profits at manufacturers, forcing airlines to cut flights and threatening consumer spending.

Still, some analysts are skeptical about the true impact oil will have on earnings. While the cost of crude is uncomfortably high, the prices of refined products used by consumers and businesses, such as gasoline and natural gas, have not surged at the same pace. That's because their costs are generally tied to inventory levels, rather than crude prices. But for companies that might be in danger of missing expectations, oil could seem like a handy excuse.

"Let's face it, if earnings comparisons don't work out too well, they look for scapegoats," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist with Standard & Poor's. "If energy prices are in the news, it's easy to blame it on them."

One in five companies say lofty oil prices are hurting their earnings, according to a survey issued this past week by Financial Executives International and Baruch College's Zicklin School of Business, and 36 percent of manufacturers have reported a negative impact. But two-thirds of chief financial officers surveyed said earnings are not tied to the price of oil in any significant way.

There are essentially two ways energy prices can affect corporate bottom lines: They can raise business operating costs and dent sales. Some retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., have in recent months blamed lower-than-expected results on slow consumer spending. After gasoline prices peaked in mid-May, that might have been genuinely true but not now, Jeff Kleintop, chief investment strategist for PNC Financial Services Group in Philadelphia, said.

If companies that are not big energy consumers blame less-than-stellar results on high oil prices, it would be wise to view their statements with a jaundiced eye. "In some cases, you might be looking at excuses instead of business fundamentals," he said.




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