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Sunday, September 26, 2004

Kerry's chances could hinge on the debates


Stakes appear higher for challenger

By Gregory Korte
Enquirer staff writer

WATCH IT
The Commission on Presidential Debates will sponsor two public "Debate Watch" events in the Cincinnati area Thursday. The televised debate begins at 9 p.m., with a discussion session afterward. The sites:

• University of Cincinnati's Tangeman Great Hall.

• Miami University, 100 Laws Hall.

ELECTION SECTION
Election 2004 page
All three of the televised presidential debates that begin this week will be hundreds of miles from Ohio, but they could be the best chance for Democrat John F. Kerry to pick up undecided voters like Elizabeth Pierce.

The 33-year-old minivan-driving mother of two from Mariemont is what pollsters might call a classic "security mom." She's moderate-to-liberal on social issues, but needs to be convinced of the wisdom of making a change in the middle of a war in Iraq.

Pierce watched the Democratic convention in July and was swayed by Kerry. Then President Bush took the stage in August and he, too, made points that resonated with her. But she wants more.

"These are really complicated problems we are faced with, and there are complicated solutions people are working on, and I can't cut through the clutter enough to figure out who has the right solution," she said.

The debates, she said, are "the closest thing I'm going to have to getting all my questions answered in the most efficient way."

The first debate will be Thursday at 9 p.m. from the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Fla. It will be followed by debates Oct. 8 in St. Louis and Oct. 13 in Tempe, Ariz.

Vice-presidential candidates debate once, on Oct. 5 in Cleveland.

Those who study presidential debates say they're more important for Kerry than Bush.

Jeffrey Jones, managing editor of the Gallup Poll, said the debates are "probably becoming a more and more critical opportunity for Kerry as he seems to be struggling a bit at this point."

Much of that struggle is in Ohio, where both candidates have spent a lot of time chasing the state's 20 electoral votes.

Bush will be at a rally Monday afternoon at the Voice of America Park in West Chester Township. He returns to Ohio on Saturday with appearances in Columbus, Mansfield and Akron.

Kerry was in Columbus on Thursday. His running mate, John Edwards, was in Cincinnati last Monday.

Debates tend to favor challengers by placing them on an equal footing with the president, neutralizing the power of incumbency. But as anyone who has ever watched post-debate television spin knows, the winner is often in the eye of the beholder.

"One of the principal effects of political debates is they tend to reinforce existing attitudes," said Robert V. Friedenberg, a Miami University professor of communications who has worked as a speechwriter for many Republican candidates.

"Bush supporters and Kerry supporters are likely to see in the performance of their candidate what they want to see."

"It's hard for us in Ohio to necessarily pick up on this, because we've seen the campaign up close for months," said Friedenberg, noting that Ohioans make up only 4 percent of the nation's voters. "Debates are virtually the only aspect of a truly national campaign that these candidates are waging."

So the real target audience for debates is that elusive undecided voter.

"I think the debates are important not only to Kerry, but to the entire country," said Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Dennis White. "Ohio is pretty much like the rest of the country. The majority of the people have made up their mind. Both presidential campaigns are pitching to that small percentage of undecideds."

The problem for Kerry is that there aren't many undecided voters left in Ohio. The most recent Ohio Poll, conducted Sept. 12-18 by the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research, put the number of truly undecided voters at 1 percent.

The Bluegrass Poll in Kentucky, conducted Sept. 10-15, pegged the number of undecideds at 6 percent. But unlike Ohio, Kentucky is considered an easy state for Bush and has not been a battleground for the candidates.

With Bush leading the Ohio Poll, Kerry's going to have to win over some weak Bush supporters to win Ohio and, presumably, the election.

Pierce is one of those voters.

She's in favor of abortion rights, and she's offended by Bush's efforts to pass a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. She thinks poverty is the "ultimate evil" in the world, and sees education as the solution.

But she also lives in an upper-middle-class suburb, and thinks the government takes too much of her paycheck - and her investment portfolio. She works for a group of specialty physicians, which means she's also worried about the impact medical malpractice suits are having on health care.

She wants to hear more on all those issues.

But she also wants to measure up the two men - especially Kerry, who's the lesser known of the two.

"Bush is a smart guy. He's smart about who he involves on his team. He's a good manager. I'm not sure he's a good leader," she said.

Thus, critics complain that debates often represent the triumph of style over substance. The most memorable lines in debate history are most likely Ronald Reagan's "There you go again," or Lloyd Bentsen's "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy." Less memorable are what any candidates said about taxes, foreign policy, or Social Security.

But most experts in rhetoric see style and substance as intertwined.

"It's not unreasonable for voters to look at these candidates and say, 'Which one can I trust the most?' And so much of that is a matter of style and personality," Miami University's Friedenberg said.

After all, neither Bush nor Al Gore answered a single question about terrorism during the 2000 debates.

"There are major issues the next president will confront that we have no serious awareness of right now. History teaches us that," he said.

Enquirer correspondent Carl Weiser contributed from Washington. E-mail gkorte@enquirer.com




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