The GOP-dominated region is expected to remain that way after the election, and by doing so will help ensure that both chambers of the Ohio General Assembly stay firmly in Republican control.

Republicans control the House 62-37, and have a similar 22-11 stranglehold on the Senate. The November election is unlikely to make any noticeable change to the Statehouse political landscape.

"By and large, there are not very many competitive races," said Herb Asher, political science professor at the Ohio State University.

Republican state lawmakers raise about 10 times as much money as their Democratic counterparts. Plus, every 10 years, when new census numbers are released, the state Apportionment Board redraws House and Senate districts to match the population shifts.

By dominating the statewide office seats that make up the Apportionment Board, Republicans have controlled it for the past two re-drawings, allowing them to design districts that give them a clear advantage.

"The Republicans have a tremendous advantage in terms of finances, district boundaries and incumbents," Asher said. "It will be very difficult for Democrats to win the House until they themselves can draw the districts."

The strength of a district is often measured by how many voters, based on past elections, are likely to vote Republican or Democrat. This is known as a political index.

An index of 55 percent is considered very difficult for the minority candidate to overcome. Once the index reaches 60 percent, the district is all but a lock for the favored party.

Most of the House and Senate seats up for election in the four-county Cincinnati region, have indexes of 60 percent or higher, according to an analysis by the Ohio Manufacturers' Association.

"Southwest Ohio districts are a bit less competitive for us," said Greg Hargett, political director for the Senate Democratic Caucus.

One of the districts with an index of less than 60 percent is occupied by Rep. Steve Driehaus, D-Price Hill. His popularity and name recognition have allowed him to buck the trend and hold a district that leans about 58 percent Republican. Driehaus is being opposed by Republican Terry Weber.

Another district under 60 percent features the rubber match between Rep. Jim Raussen, R-Springdale, and Democrat Wayne Coates of Forest Park.

Coates beat Raussen in 2000 by 535 votes, but then the district lines were redrawn to make it more GOP-friendly. Raussen beat Coates in a 2002 rematch by 6,000 votes and now holds a district that leans 57 percent Republican.

Democrats expect the race to be very close, although Republicans are quietly dismissing such optimism, noting that if Coates couldn't win as an incumbent, he stands less of a chance now.

House Minority Leader Chris Redfern, D-Port Clinton, said he also thinks the race in Clermont County between Democrat Cy Richardson and Republican Danny Bubp for the open 88th District could be close.

In the end, House and Senate Republicans would be satisfied to hold onto their current seats. Democrats are hoping for modest gains.

"My sense is we'll be competitive on Nov. 2, and I'm confident we'll be able to pick up some seats," Redfern said.

Hargett said the Senate Democrats hope to pick up two seats. The key race to watch is in southeast Ohio, where Sen. Joy Padgett, R-Coshocton, is facing a strong Democratic challenge from Terry Anderson, a former reporter held hostage for more than six years in Lebanon..

Scott Borgemenke, campaign consultant for the Senate GOP, said the unusually high voter registration this year adds an unknown factor, but he is confident Republicans will hold all of their seats.

E-mail jsiegel@enquirer.com