By James McNair
Enquirer staff writer
The old saw about food stocks being safe investments may have grown as moldy as that year-old chunk of cheese in the fridge.
More and more, such stocks are enshrouded in blue fuzz - including Kroger's.
The nation's biggest supermarket chain can't catch a break. Convenience stores, drug store chains and discount chains are nibbling more of the food retailing pie. Its workers in California launched a bitter 41/2 -month strike last October. Now, just when Kroger is able to resume its war with Wal-Mart, labor unrest at its 70 stores in Greater Cincinnati is threatening to end the interregnum.
The labor distractions - and their profit-vaporizing effects - have left their mark on Kroger's stock price. As of the market close Tuesday, Kroger's stock price of $15.10 represents a rollback to price levels of 1997. The stock is up 37 percent from where it was two years ago but is down 57 percent from its all-time high of $34.91 in March 1999.
"Kroger's moving average of the last 200 days is horrible," said J. Michael Pinson, founder and senior analyst for the online investment newsletter MarketMavens.com in Clearwater, Fla.
"The 200-day moving average is a long-term investment indicator," he explained. "In March 2004, the stock fell below its 200-day moving average and has failed to recover. As long as it's trading below its 200-day moving average, investors should avoid the stock."
Pinson doesn't follow Kroger, but quite a few analysts do. Of the 15 tracked by Thomson/First Call, six rate Kroger shares either a buy or strong buy, six rate them a hold, while three say sell. That's hardly a consensus, especially when - in Wall Street parlance - hold is often a euphemism for sell.
Another strike likely would not bode well for the stock.
During the strikes at Safeway, Albertson's and the Kroger-owned Ralph's supermarkets in California, which ran from Oct. 12, 2003, to Feb. 29, Kroger shares eked out a 1 percent price gain. The S&P 500 Food Retail Index, however, managed to gain 4 percent - even though Kroger represents a third of that index. The full S&P 500 Index gained 11.4 percent during the California grocery strikes.
Pinson said Kroger is fundamentally handicapped by its unionized work force.
"The cost of doing business with the union membership is higher compared to the Supercenter Wal-Marts that are right-to-work stores," he said. "The Wal-Mart will end up more profitable every time. This is a negative for Kroger shareholders."
E-mail jmcnair@enquirer.com
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