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Saturday, October 16, 2004

Long term, commodities strong


The closing bell

By Meg Richards
The Associated Press

NEW YORK - Concerns about slowing growth in China sparked a selloff in commodities futures this past week, but some Wall Street watchers remain bullish about companies that produce what's called "stuff" - goods like oil, metals and timber.

Many analysts believe oil prices are overextended, and speculation is likely to keep other raw materials volatile for the near future, as well; in a vivid illustration of this, copper hit a 15-year high on Wednesday only to tumble to a five-week low Thursday. But with global demand generally on the rise, dividend-paying equities linked to commodities still hold a great deal of appeal for professional investors.

"If you look at the companies that produce industrial commodities, there is some fundamental support underneath them that could lead to continued increases in stock prices," said Kenneth McCarthy, chief economist with vFinance Investments, Inc. "So even though the underlying commodities may jump around a lot, the basic trend is toward higher prices, in both commodities and the companies that produce them."

Reports out of China this week showed a slower rate of growth, in part because of the Chinese government's ongoing efforts to rein in its economy's feverish pace to more sustainable levels through higher interest rates. That spooked commodities traders, but some analysts say they reacted more in anticipation of a possible hard landing than because of an actual slowdown.

Even if China does suffer a painful decline, resulting in an overall slowing of global demand, some argue it wouldn't be enough to halt the momentum of the commodities market. It would take a significant slowdown in global demand and a sharp increase in supply to cause prices to drop substantially. So for investors who don't believe the recent surge in oil is enough to knock the global economy into recession, all this price volatility may be opportunity.

"Just like you bought the dips in the tech space in the '90s, in the secular (long-term) bull market in tangible assets, while you would go through periodic corrections and selling squalls, you buy the dips," said Jeffrey D. Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates. "I'd be more sensitive about the prices I paid for individual securities. But buying the flop tends to take the price risk out to some degree."




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