"It's a good year,'' says Heyob, who with his brother Mike farms 1,150 acres of corn and soybeans and some wheat in western Hamilton County.

The reason is that crop yields on their farm and others across Ohio and Kentucky are on a pace to set a record.

Final crop data won't be in until early next year, but the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture crop surveys in Ohio and Kentucky indicate record yields per acre for corn and soybeans thanks to good growing conditions this summer.

Nationally, the Department of Agriculture is forecasting record corn and soybean production.

The October crop forecast last week indicated the corn harvest would be 11.6 billion bushels, up 15 percent from last year's record 10.1 billion. Soybean production was forecast at 3.11 billion bushels, up 27 percent from last year.

The record soybean crop was 2.89 billion bushels in 2001.

200 bushels per acre?

For corn "weather conditions have been mostly favorable throughout the growing season" in the Midwest, the department said. Soybeans were helped by adequate rain and below-normal temperatures early on, then above-normal temperatures just before harvest.

Still, average yields can be misleading, say farmers. They can vary from field to field and even within the field.

Heyob said some of his fields near Harrison where the ground is rocky were yielding 145 bushels of corn per acre. But along New Haven Road, where the top soil is heavier, corn yields were running 180-185 bushels.

This week, the Heyobs began harvesting 105 acres north of Miami-Whitewater Forest, and the yields were running 200 bushels per acre.

In Ohio, the average corn yield is estimated at 160 bushels an acre, up from last year's 156 bushels per acre, the Ohio Agricultural Statistics Service says. Soybean yield is estimated at 46 bushels an acre, up 7.5 bushels from last year and also a record.

"Farm production varies depending on what part of the state you're in," said Joe Cornely, spokesman for the Ohio Farm Bureau Federation.

In Kentucky the corn yields are expected to average a record 150 bushels per acre, well above the previous record of 142 bushels in 2001, the state's agriculture statistical service said last week.

James Ramey, director of the Ohio Agricultural Statistics Service in Reynoldsburg, said Ohio's total corn crop is projected at 496 million bushels, well under the record of 511 bushels in 1985.

That's because the number of acres planted in corn is down.

"What we're seeing now is good, better than average yield," said Greg Meyer, Ohio State University Extension agent in Warren County.

Joyce Brown, of Brown's Farm in Ross, has approximately 350 acres of field corn. She said her corn is going to do exceptionally well this year because of steady summer rains.

"I'm hearing 200 bushels to the acre," Brown said.

Soybeans turn around

Yields for soybeans, Ohio's biggest crop, have been running 50-60 bushels an acre, about 10 bushels better than usual, in Warren County, Meyer said.

Corn yields have been as high as 230 bushels an acre. "Typically we're well less than 200," Meyer said.

But he said the current harvest was planted earlier in the summer. The later-harvest corn, planted when the weather was drier, may not be as good.

Still, the current crop is quite a turnaround from just a couple months ago, said Dennis Heyob, who has been farming with his brother in Crosby Township for 35 years.

"It was so dry all of July, it was looking like crop insurance time," said Dennis. "But we got five days of rain around the first of August. Now we're looking at a decent yield."

Economics take over

It's not just the weather that's helping the corn crop. The genetic makeup of corn is dramatically better than that planted just a couple of years ago, said Dennis Heyob.

And a record harvest doesn't necessarily mean a windfall for farmers because crop prices typically drop near harvest.

Cash corn prices have been running $2 or less a bushel after hitting nearly $3 earlier in the year. Soybean prices are also less than half their winter peak of $11 per bushel, said Ramey.

"Like one farmer said, I prefer higher yields and lower prices to the other way around," he said.

Some farmers hedge their bets by agreeing to sell at least some of their crop before the harvest to lock in better prices. But there is no uniform pattern.

The Heyobs sold some of their corn under contract earlier in the year but are storing the rest, hoping for better prices this winter.

"Talk to 10 different farmers and you'll get 10 different strategies," said Heyob. "Farmers always tend to be optimistic."

What the higher crop yields mean for consumers is also unclear. More corn could mean lower feed prices, which could translate into more beef and pork production in the long run.

But farm prices represent only a fraction of what consumers pay at the supermarket.

"I wouldn't automatically expect a lower price for the T-bone steak you buy at the store," said Ramey.

E-mail mboyer@enquirer.com