ELECTION 2004

• Chabot has a nice chat with justice • Health care looms as president's task • Fingerhut knows underdogs • Women for Kerry draws 2,500 • Kerry: Bush has hidden plan • Disagreements mark race • Voting opens today in Fla. • Newspaper: More votes uncounted in black areas • 2004 Presidential endorsements • Election 2004 section

The pattern could repeat on Nov. 2, the Columbus Dispatch reported Sunday based on its precinct-by-precinct computer analysis comparing 2000 election results from U.S. Census race data.

Ohio had 94,569 uncounted presidential votes in 2000, which would not have been enough to sway the outcome. President Bush won Ohio by about 167,000 votes over Democrat Al Gore.

In precincts where 90 percent or more of the voting-age population is black, 4.8 percent of ballots had no votes counted for president.

In precincts where the population was more than 90 percent white, the rate of uncounted presidential votes was 1.7 percent. The statewide rate was about 2 percent.

"Those variations are strikingly associated with poverty and lower education," said Herb Asher, an Ohio State University political-science professor who began studying punch-card voting more than two decades ago.

All the predominantly black precincts are in Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery and Summit counties. Only Franklin County uses electronic ballots; the rest use punch cards, which are in 68 of Ohio's 88 counties.

The rate of uncounted votes is also high in Ohio's Appalachian counties, which are associated with higher poverty and lower educational levels, Asher noted.

Holmes County, home to the state's highest concentration of Amish, also had many uncounted votes because Amish voters typically skip the presidential question.

There is no way to tell for sure how many voters intentionally did not cast a vote for president, but exit polls indicate the percentage of uncounted votes is higher than the rate of purposefully skipped votes.

Punch cards were vilified after the 2000 recount in Florida, marred by incompletely punched holes, more than one vote for president or improperly aligned cards.

A federal judge has postponed trial until after the election in a 2002 American Civil Liberties Union lawsuit that seeks to declare Ohio's punch-card system unconstitutional. The ACLU said the aging machines are too error prone and violate the voting rights of blacks, who are more likely to live in punch-card counties.