Monday, October 25, 2004

Week critical for Delta


Labor, debt talks may hasten Chap. 11

By James Pilcher
Enquirer staff writer

Delta Air Lines has warned repeatedly that a bankruptcy filing could come within weeks if settlements aren't reached soon with its pilot union and its debt holders.

But experts say that with key dates in both sets of talks coming this week, the nation's third-largest carrier could decide within days whether to file for Chapter 11 protection - especially with the busy holiday travel season looming in the next three weeks.

"It is certainly possible," that Delta files by the end of the week, said Richard Bittenbender, senior vice president for Moody's Investment Service, who has been monitoring Delta's debt situation. "I wouldn't say it is inevitable. ... It is still possible that they can work it out to stay out of bankruptcy.

"But they've got to (find a resolution) very soon."

Delta would not comment on the talks, or on when it might file for bankruptcy.

The airline told customers last week that operations would continue as normal under a court-supervised restructuring.

Delta has already announced plans to cut 6,000 to 7,000 jobs by the middle of next year.

The carrier, which operates its second-largest hub at the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport and employs about 8,000 in conjunction with Erlanger-based subsidiary Comair, has lost $6.2 billion in the last three years.

That figure is nearly $3 billion just this year, with the Atlanta-based airline losing $646 million in the third quarter alone. That quarter also saw the company burn through $550 million in cash reserves.

Delta has been negotiating with its nearly 8,000-member pilot union to get $1 billion worth of annual cost cuts, and has said that bankruptcy is the only option without the reductions.

Those talks continued through the weekend, but on Sunday, the union told its members that the discussions had recessed at 10:30 a.m. Negotiations are set to resume today in Washington, D.C.

In addition, union leadership is set to meet today to review the talks and potential settlements, although there has been no word from either side on a potential vote on a deal.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the debt problem comes into play. Delta has said that in addition to a pilot deal, the company must restructure its $20 billion worth of debt, especially since it says it needs to borrow another $800 million next year to stay afloat.

Those involved in an offer to exchange about $2.5 billion worth of debt for about 35 cents on the dollar can turn in their answer to get a bonus Tuesday. The actual deadline is Nov. 18, but experts say that Tuesday's early response deadline could give Delta an idea of how receptive all bond holders are to restructuring their deals.

Tuesday "is an important date," said Standard & Poor's senior airline credit analyst Phillip Baggaley. "They want to get it done as soon as possible, and it is not clear that they can hold out with their cash drain until next month."

Experts also say that Delta might proceed to bankruptcy court so it can start rebuilding confidence in the airline before the Thanksgiving travel rush.

"If they do it next weekend, they could bury the story with Election Day coming up and Halloween going on," said Mike Boyd, president of the Evergreen, Colo.-based airline consulting firm The Boyd Group. "If they are going to file, file soon and get the bad news out of the way and go on with your advertising blitz.

"You don't want something like this hanging on forever."

E-mail jpilcher@enquirer.com