The winning candidate has carried Kentucky in every election since 1964. And because of the gradual rise of the GOP in what once was a part of the solid Democratic South, presidential elections often have been tight races in Kentucky. Candidates visited often as they battled for the state's eight electoral votes.

But with recent independent polling showing President Bush leading Democrat John Kerry by 17 points, Kentucky has garnered little notice from the candidates this year.

Bush, Kerry, their running mates, their families and surrogates appear frequently just across the river, in Ohio. Kentucky is not in play, political experts say, because it is assumed Bush is going to carry the state.

"Kentucky is a red Bush state, and I think that is proven by how little we've seen of John Kerry and the Democrats during the campaign," Northern Kentucky University Political Science professor Michael Thomson said.

But Northern Kentucky Democrats say they won't concede.

"A lot of people have written off Kentucky as Republican," said Bob Sanders, a Fort Mitchell lawyer who helped open a Kerry/Edwards campaign headquarters in Covington. "We refuse to give up Kentucky without a fight."

But Republicans are working to make sure Bush carries Northern Kentucky by a wide margin. The regional headquarters of Victory 2004, The Republican Party of Kentucky's political operation, is working to get voters to the polls for Bush on down through the GOP ticket, said Marc Wilson, a GOP strategist from Florence.

A Louisville Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll that has Bush up 17 points across the state has the president leading in Northern Kentucky with 69 percent compared to 24 for Kerry, 3 percent for the independent ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo and 4 percent undecided.

"Kentucky is Bush country, but Northern Kentucky is the Bush universe," Wilson said.

On a campaign swing to Ohio in September, Bush took time to pose for photographs with Geoff Davis, the Boone County Republican running in the 4th District congressional race against Augusta Democrat Nick Clooney. And Vice President Dick Cheney has appeared in Northern Kentucky to raise money and campaign for Davis.

E-mail pcrowley@enquirer.com