Monday, November 1, 2004
Ohio tally may take weeks
Provisional ballots could decide race
By Carl Weiser
Enquirer Washingtion Bureau
WASHINGTON - If Tuesday's presidential election is close in Ohio, it could be mid-November or later before it's known for sure which candidate won the state - and maybe the presidency.
Under law, boards of elections cannot even begin counting "provisional" ballots until Nov. 13. Because that's a Saturday, many boards might wait until Nov. 15 to begin.
If there are far more provisional ballots than votes separating President Bush and Sen. John Kerry, that means the winner of one of the key battleground states will still be a mystery on Wednesday.
A provisional ballot is cast when a voter's claim to be registered is in question. The voter's completed ballot is put in an envelope and set aside.
During the 10 days after the election, boards will determine which provisionals are valid, but they can't see whom the person actually voted for.
"They can't open the envelopes until Nov. 13," said Carlo LoParo, spokesman for Secretary of State Ken Blackwell.
And after that official count, known as a canvass, an automatic recount could be triggered.
That would happen if the candidates are separated by a quarter of a percentage point or less. Such a recount could extend the count into December.
At Warren County's Board of Elections, director Susan Johnson said she's keeping her fingers crossed - that she and her employees can get Thanksgiving off.
"Everything is unofficial on Election Night," she said.
In Clermont County, director Danny Bare is familiar with the impact of provisional ballots - they flipped a state Senate election this year there, he said.
In unofficial vote totals on the night of the March Republican primary earlier this year, Jean Schmidt beat Tom Niehaus, 16,911 to 16,849, a 62-vote margin. But in a reversal, canvass results three weeks later indicated Niehaus defeated Schmidt by 26 votes - 17,092 to 17,066.
"When we went back and counted provisionals, it made the difference," Bare said. And it took more than a month to ultimately settle that election.
In 2000, Ohioans cast 98,500 provisional ballots, but they weren't a factor because the race in Ohio wasn't close. Ultimately, about nine of 10 provisional ballots were considered valid, LoParo said.
Gov. Bob Taft, a former secretary of state himself, said earlier this month that the number could jump above 100,000, straining county election officials who must hold the ballots for 10 days while verifying eligibility.
For their parts, both campaigns say they're planning to leave Ohio Nov. 3 after a victory.
"We expect John Kerry to win Ohio by a large enough percentage so that the provisional ballots aren't an issue," said David Sullivan, director of the Democrats' Voter Protection Program.
Said Kevin Sheridan, spokesman for the Republican efforts: "We're optimistic that the race will be called for the president on election night, and fairly early."
Election calendar
