ELECTION 2004

• Even rules go down to wire • Registered, but not voting? • What to watch for, hour by hour • Here's what is at stake at polls today • Election essentials: Ohio • In Kentucky, a last burst of energy • Election essentials: Kentucky • More Election 2004 news

MORE INFO

• Monday's photo gallery • Enquirer's election guide • Map: Electoral college   (PDF file, 180k)

But after more than 80 candidate visits, perhaps $100 million in television advertising spread out over a half-dozen media markets, more than 6 million phone calls and 1.3 door-knocks, the candidates found Ohio right back where the pundits all said it would be: a virtual tie.

The University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll released Monday showed President Bush leading his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, by less than 1 percentage point - too close to call.

After nearly eight months of head-to-head campaigning, the final national pre-election polls turned up tied - 49-49 in one CNN-USA Today-Gallup survey, with Ralph Nader at 1 percent.

Tight surveys in Florida as well as Midwestern states added to the uncertainty of the competition for 270 electoral votes.

Kerry made six stops in four states on Monday and early today - two each in Ohio and Wisconsin.

Bush awoke in Cincinnati and campaigned across five states before heading home to Texas to vote. He'll even return to Ohio today for a rally in Columbus.

At one point, the two men and their entourages nearly crossed paths, the president preparing to leave Milwaukee aboard Air Force One in early afternoon as Kerry's chartered jet was arriving.

"I've heard your struggles. I share your hopes. And together, tomorrow we have a chance to make a difference," Kerry said, casting Bush as a friend of the rich and powerful.

"There have been some tough times in Ohio," Bush conceded as he began his day in a state that has lost 232,000 jobs since he took office.

But he said the state has 5,500 new jobs since last month, and added, "We are moving in the right direction."

In Florida, Kerry said he stood ready to assume national command in a time of terrorism. "I believe we can bring the world back to the side of America. I believe that we can regain America's respect and influence in the world, and I believe we deserve a president who knows how to fight a more effective war on terror and make America safe," he said.

In Milwaukee several hours later, he pledged a "fresh start to Iraq."

Bush said his rival belongs in the "flip-flop hall of fame" for saying he voted for and against legislation providing $87 billion for troops in Iraq; but, for the most part, the criticism was muted.

"The American president must lead with clarity and purpose. As presidents from Lincoln to Roosevelt to Reagan so clearly demonstrated, a president must not shift with the wind," Bush said. "A president has to make the tough decisions and stand by them."

With other battleground states just as divided, both campaigns believe that Ohio may well determine the winner. And so both campaigns gave Ohio its proper respect Monday with campaign events from dawn (Bush's 7:15 a.m. rally in Wilmington) to well past midnight (Kerry's visit to a Toledo airport).

In between, Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, dropped by Cincinnati to help make phone calls at the local Democratic phone bank, and for a couple of cheese coneys to go.

Only Vice President Dick Cheney, sent on a mission to shore up Hawaii for the GOP, didn't touch Ohio soil Monday.

Kerry's midnight rally in Toledo was a late addition to the schedule, with aides saying he was fulfilling a promise to campaign in Ohio until the last hour of the contest.

But it won't end there.

Breaking a tradition of not campaigning on Election Day, the Bush campaign announced Monday that the president will return to Ohio one last time today after voting in his home precinct in Crawford, Texas. He will meet supporters at the Columbus airport just before noon.

"I can't think of a better place to kick off the last day of this campaign than with the great folks of Ohio," Bush told 10,000 supporters at a dawn rally Monday in Wilmington, about an hour north of Cincinnati.

Eight-and-a-half hours later, Edwards touched down at Lunken Airport to begin a 90-minute whirlwind campaign visit to the Queen City.

The Democratic vice presidential nominee shook the hands of Cincinnati firefighters, took a 15-minute tour of the Walnut Hills campaign headquarters, and then swung by Skyline Chili.

With the polls so tight, the biggest imponderable was turnout.

Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, estimated that as many as 117.5 million to 121 million voters would cast ballots, 58 percent to 60 percent of those eligible. The projection in Ohio is a 73 percent turnout of about 7.98 million voters.

By election eve, millions of Americans had voted early in 32 states, including more than 1.8 million in Florida.

rE-mail gkorte@enquirer.com