Monday, November 8, 2004
Chances better for some than others to finish unbeaten
College football in review
By MIKE LOPRESTI
Gannett News Service
So many unbeatens, so little time to get rid of a few of them for the sake of peace and tranquility in the polls and BCS standings.
Leaving aside not-quite-ready-for-prime time Boise State, five unbeatens remain. The operative and most howl-free number at the end would be two. Wait until a perfect team from a posh conference goes uninvited to the Orange Bowl. The volcanic magma is already starting to build.
As the opportunities for upsets dwindle, the chances of perfection for the Fab Five:
USC: In the past two weeks, the Trojans have won in the hail at Washington State and fog at Oregon State. "It seems like Mother Nature is throwing everything at us," said quarterback Matt Leinart.
But the forecast is sunny, climatic and otherwise. The remaining games - Arizona, Notre Dame and UCLA - are in southern California. No opponent is ranked. Pete Carroll has never lost in November.
Notre Dame's upset at Tennessee, however, brings to mind the Irish are 25-2 after bye weeks since 1984.
Incidentally, they have a bye before the USC game.
Chance of perfection: 75 percent.
OKLAHOMA: They've had to scrape by for two weeks, and finding cracks in the defense - a leaky secondary for one - has become something of a sport for skeptics. But the heavy lifting is over for the Sooners.
They have Nebraska - or what passes now for Nebraska - this week. Then Baylor. Then the Big 12 title game, possibly against Iowa State, who last month had lost 13 straight conference games, but now has somehow managed to land in first place in the wasteland of the Big 12 North.
Chance of perfection: 90 percent.
AUBURN: The Tigers have the harshest road. A home showdown Saturday with Georgia. A rivalry game at Alabama. Then the SEC title game, probably against Tennessee, which would look more dangerous if the Vols were not down to their third-string quarterback.
Is it possible Auburn could go perfect through the toughest conference and be the odd team left out of the Orange Bowl?
There would be gale-force complaining.
Chances of perfection: 50 percent.
WISCONSIN: Nothing but road games left for the Badgers, whose offense may be catching up with their famed defense, controlling the ball for more than 44 minutes against Minnesota.
Wisconsin goes to Michigan State this Saturday, but the depressed Spartans may be on fumes losing late to Michigan and Ohio State.
Then the Badgers go to Iowa, where the Hawkeyes have won 17 straight home games.
Chance of perfection: 60 percent.
UTAH: The Utes have scored 63, 51 and 63 points their last three games, and have broken 40 seven times trying to woo voters, impress computers and become the first team from a non-BCS conference to force its way into a BCS bowl game.
Neither Wyoming nor BYU should stop Utah, whose quarterback, Alex Smith, has a 24-2 touchdown pass-interception ratio.
But while the Utes are a charming story, remember what it will mean if they grab a BCS bowl bid.
That leaves out, perhaps, a one-loss Texas. A one-loss Michigan. A Georgia.
If unbeaten, upstart Utah will be a cause. But not everywhere.
Chance of perfection: 85 percent.
QUOTEBOOK
"They didn't say it in a nice way. ... Basically it was a case of 'You guys cannot keep doing this to us.' And it needed to be said." - Florida State tailback Lorenzo Booker about the tongue-lashing the defense gave the error-prone offense at halftime of the Duke game. Bobby Bowden changed quarterbacks again from Chris Rix back to Wyatt Sexton, and Florida State rolled to a 29-7 win.
"It was like the walk of the zombies." - Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen on his unfocused team that lost 16-0 to Virginia.
"Because I said it was like that! OK? Any other questions? Thank you." - Michigan State coach John L. Smith, abruptly ending his 29-second post-game press conference after the Spartans gave up two late scores in a 32-19 loss to Ohio State. Smith said the coaches should be blamed, and when asked why, ended the press conference after one question.
Up to David Greene. Georgia quarterback sets NCAA record with 40th winning start. Most quarterbacks don't play in that many games.
Up to Ashlan Davis. Tulsa special teams sensation returns a kickoff for a touchdown in NCAA record fourth straight game. Since Tulsa is 2-7, he receives a lot of kickoffs.
Down to Purdue. It's a lousy job, being an expert in saying, "What if?" Boilermakers have dropped four straight games by a total of 10 points.
Down to Penn State. Latest gloomy numbers from Happy Valley: Take away Mid-American Conference opponents and Nittany Lions are 1-16 in their last 17 games.
Down to Miami. Lose to Clemson at home? It's official. This is a crisis.