Forty days ago, Xavier ranked No.149 in the Ratings Percentage Index, and early returns suggested an NCAA Tournament season might be a long shot. Forty days from now, the field of 65 is announced, and the No.23 RPI XU owned Monday wears quite well.

        Jerry Palm of collegeRPI.com has the Musketeers as a sixth seed in his projected NCAA field, matching the highest seed they've ever drawn.

        What happened? Its 10-game winning streak aside, XU (15-3) has gotten huge help from its non-conference opponents. With a favorable schedule the rest of the way, it should be the Atlantic 10's top hopeful for an at-large bid — unless XU wins the A-10 Tournament to punch its ticket automatically.

        “They're in really good shape,” said Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com, who projects XU as a No.8 seed in his weekly brackets. “Right now they should be puffing out their chests and feeling good.”

        Much can change by Selection Sunday, but XU has thus far built a solid resume. At 7-0 in A-10 play, it has a two-game lead in the West Division, and the league has never had an outright division winner miss the NCAAs.

        “I think Xavier's clearly the best team in the league,” Fordham coach Bob Hill said Monday. “I don't think anybody else is even close.”

        That makes for an interesting dynamic. While the league sent three or more teams to the tournament in 10 of the past 11 years (the exception: two in 1994-95), XU is the only A-10 team projected as a tourney team right now by either Palm or Lunardi.

        “Right now, it's whoever wins the conference tournament and Xavier,” Palm said. “If they win, it's probably just them.”

        That means a team like Saint Joseph's (12-5, 7-0 A-10), which has a three-game lead in the East Division, would miss out. For XU, it also means a few losses could add unwanted drama to its bid pursuit.

        “Xavier's problem is still (a lack of) quality wins,” Palm said. “The plus side is that they haven't had a bad loss. But they need to avoid that. Like going to Temple isn't fun, but they're not in the top 100 (109 RPI), so Xavier's going to have to win there.”

        The potentially “acceptable” losses would seem to be Saint Joe's (56 RPI) and at St. Bonaventure (73), which is 7-1 at home.

        “If they were to lose two league games and lose in the conference championship game in Philly, the odds would still be in their favor,” Lunardi said.

        A look back to Dec.20: XU was 5-3. Its strength-of-schedule RPI was No.213. Its 11 non-conference opponents were a combined 42-46 (excepting their results against XU).

        While XU has gotten hot, so have those opponents, going 71-45 since (excepting XU games). Big moves have been made by Kent State (200 RPI then, now 54) and Wisconsin (190, now 75). XU's SOS now ranks 63rd.

        Last Saturday, 10 of XU's 11 non-conference opponents won — including Long Island, which was 0-16 at the time. XU's RPI jumped from No.35 to 23 in a day.

        “I felt all along we were playing some good teams in non-conference,” XU coach Thad Matta said. “It's good to see them doing well.”

        Now the A-10 has to hope other candidates emerge. The league is balanced, as seven teams rank between 50 and 120 — good but not great.

        “The league has to be concerned about that,” Hill said.

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